Part I: F1 2021
Can Red Bull Racing win constructors championship?
The grid is almost complete. It is time to start talking about the 2021 season. In fact, we are just 61 days away from the start of an all new season and 63 days from the first race in 2021. With renewed confidence around handling race events amidst COVID-19, FIA and F1 has gone for an ambitious 23 race calendar. The longest in recent times.
As I noted last weekend, this season is already off to a flying start. Australia is no longer the opening act. Bahrain is where the 2021 season will start while Imola makes a comeback and Australia moves to November. But what about teams though? Let's drill down on the team strategy.
What is everyone going for?
The team selection makes one thing clear: every team is looking at consistency. Out of 20 drivers, only 10 score points in each race. The teams are looking for drivers who can score points in each and every race. If you are a F1 team then the question would be if I handover a reliable and competitive car to this driver, then will he be able to score points on that given day. So, experience, competence and consistency is what each team has opted for. Here is how it is playing out.
Alpine F1 team
Let's start with Renault. Strike that. Renault will rebrand itself to Alpine next year and their livery will be French flag on wheels. It will be an ode to the French racing team and will be seen as homecoming for a classic brand. Their driver lineup is homecoming for one driver. Two-time F1 world champion Fernando Alonso will lead the team.
For him, it is a comeback after two years and he wants to score points immediately. 2021 is not a major chance in terms of technical regulation and the recent progress means Alonso will have a competitive car under him. Can he extract maximum? That will be a question bookies would be betting for and against. With Alonso, Alpine will be getting an experienced racing driver who has worked on the championship winning Renault team. Alpine would be hoping for two things from him: competence and consistency.
He will lineup alongside Esteban Ocon, who has more mileage with the 2020 Renault F1 car than Alonso does. His podium performance this year talks volume about his capability. For him, the task would be to help Alonso get on his heels quickly and join hands together to score points each and every race. Alpine won't fancy drivers championship but it would want to be the top three teams in constructors championship. So, the task is cut out.
Aston Martin F1
As far as rebranding goes, Racing Point wants to be the champion. The F1 is rebranding to Aston Martin F1 this year and with it, it will bring an iconic British racing name back to F1. Almost everything remains the same. The livery is expected to change from Pink to British racing green. The team leadership stays the same and Sebastian Vettel will drive alongside Lance Stroll.
So, in 2021, if you see Sebastian Vettel's name associated with a Mercedes copycat then don't be surprised. Racing Point seemed really quick in pre-season testing forcing it's rivals to formally challenge and many call it Pink Mercedes. With regulation forcing Aston Martin F1 to make changes, will it remain as fast as it was in 2021. That is something to watch for.
Forgive me for talking about Vettel a lot here but his talent is under question. Charles Leclerc scored 98 points using the same machinery where Vettel could manage only 33 points. For four-time world champion, 2021 and Aston Martin F1 will be a wheel to redemption. Can he prove the world that he has still got what it takes to be on top? Seb is such an incredible person that I would want to see him succeed.
McLaren Mercedes
McLaren is the team on the rise and next year, they could be title challengers. Remember 2008, when Lewis Hamilton won his first F1 world championship. It was driving McLaren Mercedes and 2021 could be such an opportunity. McLaren has built a strong livery and has proven the capability of Renault engine. But everyone knows that a Mercedes engine is what you need to succeed. So, McLaren is going back to partner Mercedes in 2021.
Their driver lineup is also one that could bring fun and joy to the paddock. Lando Norris stays while Daniel Ricciardo comes to the team. Ricciardo (or honey badger) was always seen as a driver capable of winning the championship. It is still surprising that he hasn't won yet. With Mercedes powered McLaren, Ricciardo would want to change that equation for good.
However, to be realistic, it won't be easy. So, an ideal result for Ricciardo would be to finish on the podium as many times as he can. With Norris' brilliance on display last year, McLaren would be hoping to have two drivers on the podium in 2021. For them, the biggest challenge would be to ensure reliability. If McLaren manages to avoid mechanical failures, their drivers would have their task cut out. I would wager that Norris would perform better than Ricciardo in the team battle. Let's see.
Red Bull Racing
At Abu Dhabi last year, Red Bull Racing decided to put pedal to the metal. With Verstappen's win, it was immediately clear that there is a team that has improved so much that it could be a real title contender. That progress will be driven by few additional factors in 2021:
Honda's last year in F1. They would want to win the championship anyhow.
Sergio Perez would want to send a message that he is the most talented driver on the grid.
Max Verstappen would want to prove that Red Bull's singular focus on him was justified.
If Red Bull finishes P2 then it would be a bigger disappointment than Ferrari finishing P6 in 2020. With two extremely competitive drivers, Red Bull would hope to bag as many points as possible in each and every race. Can Sergio surge at Red Bull? Can Max show his maximum performance?
Mercedes
I will not be surprised if Mercedes wins its eight consecutive world championship in 2021. It really won't be a surprise but if they don't that will be quite a surprise. As an overall package, Mercedes is better in every way. It is quick off the line, reliable to the core and does tyre management better than any other car on the grid.
The fact that George Russell could jump in the car and immediately go for numero uno shows how excellent is that multiple championship winning car. For Mercedes, the weakest link this year was Valtteri. It is almost certain that Bottas won't be driving a Mercedes in 2022. For him, the dream of winning F1 world championship will be a now or never situation.
At the time of writing, Lewis Hamilton is yet to sign a contract extension with Mercedes. There are rumours that he is asking for a lucrative deal and Mercedes wants to go with a one year deal instead. There is, of course, rumours of Hamilton planning to retire and take a bigger role in F1. What will it be? A one year deal to take a shot at record breaking 8th world championship or walking away content with whatever he has accomplished so far. We should know soon.
That’s a wrap for this weekend edition. Next weekend, from Ferrari’s bounceback to AlphaTauri’s opportunity. Stay tuned!!!
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Wishing you a very happy work week ahead.